Forrest W. Crawford bio photo

Forrest W. Crawford

Associate Professor
Statistics & Data Science
Yale University

PO Box 208034 New Haven CT 06510


[Google Scholar] [arXiv] [ORCID]

Working Papers

  1. Peng, S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Partial identification and credible estimation for stochastic epidemics with missing data. Working Paper.
  2. Cai, X., Loh, W.W. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Nonparametric identification of counterfactual causal intervention effects under contagion. Working Paper.
  3. Morozova, O., Eck, D.J. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Regression and stratification for contagious outcomes. Working Paper.


  1. Khoshnood, K., Shebl, F.M., Khoury, D., Aara, E., Barbour, R., Forrest W. Crawford, et al. (2019) Reported History and Correlates of Drug Overdose among People Who Inject Drugs in Lebanon. Submitted.
  2. Eck, D.J. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Conformal prediction for exponential families and generalized linear models. Submitted.
  3. Dean, N.E., Gsell, P., Brookmeyer, R., Forrest W. Crawford, Donnelly, C.A., Ellenberg, S., et al. (2019) Accumulating evidence from randomized clinical trials across outbreaks. Submitted.
  4. Shebl, F., Khoshnood, K., Khouri, D., Aaraj, E., Barbour, R., Forrest W. Crawford, et al. (2019) HCV Risk and Prevalence among People Who Inject Drugs in Lebanon. Submitted.
  5. Shirado, H., Forrest W. Crawford and Christakis, N.A. (2019) Collective and Individual Behavior in Response to Disasters in Online Experiments. Submitted.
  6. Eck, D.J., Morozova, O. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Randomization for the direct effect of an infectious disease intervention in a clustered study population. Submitted.
  7. Li, S., Forrest W. Crawford and Gerstein, M. (2018) SigLASSO: a LASSO approach jointly optimizing sampling likelihood and cancer mutation signatures. Submitted.


  1. Forrest W. Crawford, Marx, F.M., Zelner, J. and Cohen, T. (2019) Transmission modeling with regression adjustment for analyzing household-based studies of infectious disease: application to tuberculosis. Epidemiology, In press.
  2. Forrest W. Crawford, Morozova, O., Buchanan, A.L. and Spiegelman, D. (2019) Interpretation of the individual effect under treatment spillover. American Journal of Epidemiology, 188, 1407–1409.
  3. Zeng, L., Li, J. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Empirical evidence of recruitment bias in a network study of people who inject drugs. American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 45, 460–469.
  4. Cheng, S., Eck, D.J. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Estimating the size of a hidden finite set: asymptotic behavior of estimators. Statistics Surveys, In press.
  5. Morozova, O., Forrest W. Crawford, Cohen, T., Paltiel, A.D. and Altice, F.L. (2019) Cost-effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: Dynamic modeling analysis. Addiction, In press.
  6. Li, Z., Xie, E., Forrest W. Crawford, Warren, J.L., McConnell, K., Copple, T., et al. (2019) Suspected heroin-related overdoses incidents in Cincinnati, Ohio: a spatiotemporal analysis. PLoS Medicine, In Press.
  7. Orr, L., Shebl, F., Heimer, R., Khoshnood, K., Barbour, R., Khouri, D., et al. (2019) Violence and discrimination against men who have sex with men in Lebanon. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, In press.
  8. Morozova, O., Booth, R.E., Dvoriak, S., Dumchev, K., Sazonova, Y., Salyuk, T., et al. (2019) Divergent estimates of HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in Ukraine. International Journal of Drug Policy, In press.
  9. Forrest W. Crawford, Ho, L.S. and Suchard, M.A. (2018) Computational methods for birth-death processes. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Computational Statistics, 10, e1423.
  10. Forrest W. Crawford, Aronow, P.M., Zeng, L. and Li, J. (2018) Identification of homophily and preferential recruitment in respondent-driven sampling. American Journal of Epidemiology, 187, 153–160.
  11. Pachankis, J.E., Hatzenbuehler, M.L., Wang, K., Burton, C.L., Forrest W. Crawford, Phelan, J.C., et al. (2018) The Burden of Stigma on Health and Wellbeing: A Taxonomy of Concealment, Course, Disruptiveness, Aesthetics, Origin, and Peril across 93 Stigmas. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 44, 451–474.
  12. Gunabushanam, G., Millet, J.D., Stilp, E., Forrest W. Crawford, McNamara, R.L. and Scoutt, L.M. (2018) Computer-assisted detection of tardus parvus waveforms on Doppler ultrasound. Ultrasound, 26, 81–92.
  13. Ho, L.S., Xu, J., Forrest W. Crawford, Minin, V.N. and Suchard, M.A. (2018) Birth(death)/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 76, 911–944.
  14. Gonsalves, G.S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Dynamics of the HIV outbreak and response in Scott County, Indiana, 2011-2015: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV, 5, 569–577.
  15. Gonsalves, G.S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Lessons learned from the Indiana HIV outbreak. HIV Specialist, 10.
  16. Aronow, P.M., Forrest W. Crawford and Zubizarreta, J.R. (2018) Confidence intervals for linear unbiased estimators under constrained dependence. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 12, 2238–2252.
  17. Wu, J., Forrest W. Crawford, Kim, D.A., Stafford, D. and Christakis, N.A. (2018) Exposure, hazard, and survival analysis of diffusion on social networks. Statistics in Medicine, 37, 2561–2585. (Received 2017 WNAR Outstanding Written Paper Award.)
  18. Liu, Y. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Estimating dose-specific cell division and apoptosis rates from chemo-sensitivity experiments. Scientific Reports, 8, 1–8.
  19. Ho, L.S., Forrest W. Crawford and Suchard, M.A. (2018) Direct likelihood-based inference for discretely observed stochastic compartmental models of infectious disease. Annals of Applied Statistics, 12, 1993–2021.
  20. Morozova, O., Cohen, T. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Risk ratios for contagious outcomes. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 15, 20170696.
  21. Gonsalves, G.S., Forrest W. Crawford, Cleary, P.D., Kaplan, E.H. and Paltiel, A.D. (2018) An Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services. Medical Decision Making, 38, 262–272.
  22. Forrest W. Crawford, Wu, J. and Heimer, R. (2018) Hidden population size estimation from respondent-driven sampling: a network approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 113, 755–766.
  23. Bazazi, A.R., Vijay, A., Forrest W. Crawford, Heimer, R., Kamarulzaman, A. and Altice, F.L. (2018) HIV testing and awareness of HIV status among people who inject drugs in Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. AIDS Care, 30, 59–64.
  24. Antillón, M., Warren, J.L., Forrest W. Crawford, Weinberger, D.M., Kürum̈ E, Pak, G.D., et al. (2017) The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: a meta-regression approach. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11, e0005376.
  25. Chen, L., Forrest W. Crawford and Karbasi, A. (2017) Submodular Variational Inference for Network Reconstruction. Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI).
  26. Wu, J., Forrest W. Crawford, Raag, M., Heimer, R. and Uusküla, A. (2017) Using data from respondent-driven sampling to estimate the number of people who inject drugs, with application to the Kohtla-Järve region of Estonia. PLoS One, 12, e0185711.
  27. Culbert, G.J., Forrest W. Crawford, Murni, A., Waluyo, A., Bazazi, A.R., Sahar, J., et al. (2017) Predictors of Mortality within Prison and after Release among Persons Living with HIV in Indonesia. Research and Reports in Tropical Medicine, 8, 25–35.
  28. Heimer, R., Barbour, R., Khoury, D., Forrest W. Crawford, Shebl, F., Aaraj, E., et al. (2017) HIV Risk, Prevalence, and Access to Care among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Lebanon. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses, 33, 1149–1154.
  29. Chen, L., Karbasi, A. and Forrest W. Crawford (2016) Estimating the size of a large network and its communities from a random sample. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 29.
  30. Forrest W. Crawford, Stutz, T.C. and Lange, K. (2016) Coupling bounds for approximating birth-death processes by truncation. Statistics and Probability Letters, 109, 30–38.
  31. Forrest W. Crawford (2016) The graphical structure of respondent-driven sampling. Sociological Methodology, 46, 187–211.
  32. Kunkel, A., Forrest W. Crawford, Shepherd, J. and Cohen, T. (2016) Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining TB/HIV co-epidemic. AIDS, 30.
  33. Forrest W. Crawford (2016) Discussion of “Co-authorship and citation networks for statisticians” by Pengsheng Ji and Jiashun Jin. Annals of Applied Statistics, 10.
  34. Braun, E.S., Forrest W. Crawford, Desai, M.M., Meek, J., Kirley, P.D., Miller, L., et al. (2015) Obesity not associated with severity among hospitalized adults with seasonal influenza virus infection. Infection, 1–7.
  35. Forrest W. Crawford, Weiss, R.E. and Suchard, M.A. (2015) Sex, lies, and self-reported counts: Bayesian mixture models for longitudinal heaped count data via birth-death processes. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9, 572–596.
  36. Pitzer, V., Bilcke, J., Heylen, E., Forrest W. Crawford, Van Ranst, M., Zeller, M., et al. (2015) Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium? Scientific Reports, 5, 18585.
  37. Chen, L., Forrest W. Crawford and Karbasi, A. (2015) Seeing the Unseen Network: Inferring Hidden Social Ties from Respondent-Driven Sampling. Proceedings of The 30th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 28th Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference
  38. Bazazi, A.R., Forrest W. Crawford, Zelenev, A., Heimer, R., Kamarulzaman, A. and Altice, F.L. (2015) HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs in Malaysia: a respondent-driven sampling study in Greater Kuala Lumpur. AIDS & Behavior, 19, 2347–2357.
  39. Forrest W. Crawford (2015) Hidden network reconstruction from information diffusion. 18th International Conference on Information Fusion pp. 180–185.
  40. Aronow, P.M., Coppock, A., Forrest W. Crawford and Green, D.P. (2015) Combining list experiment and direct question estimates of sensitive behavior prevalence. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 3, 43–66.
  41. Quintero, I., Keil, P., Jetz, W. and Forrest W. Crawford (2015) Historical Biogeography Using Species Geographical Ranges. Systematic Biology, 64, 1059–1073.
  42. Aronow, P.M. and Forrest W. Crawford (2015) Nonparametric identification for respondent-driven sampling. Statistics and Probability Letters, 106, 100–102.
  43. Forrest W. Crawford and Zelterman, D. (2015) Markov counting models for correlated binary responses. Biostatistics, 3, 427–440.
  44. Mulder, W.H. and Forrest W. Crawford (2015) On the distribution of interspecies correlation for Markov mutation models on Yule trees. Journal of Theoretical Biology , 364, 275–283.
  45. Forrest W. Crawford, Minin, V.N. and Suchard, M.A. (2014) Estimation for General Birth-Death Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 109, 730–747.
  46. Forrest W. Crawford and Suchard, M.A. (2013) Diversity, disparity, and evolutionary rate estimation for unresolved Yule trees. Systematic Biology, 62, 439–455.
  47. Pybus, O.G., Suchard, M.A., Lemey, P., Bernadin, F., Rambaut, A., Forrest W. Crawford, et al. (2012) Unifying the spatial epidemiology and evolution of emerging epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 109, 15066–15071.
  48. Forrest W. Crawford and Suchard, M.A. (2012) Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 65, 553–580.
  49. Forrest W. Crawford, Khayal, I.S., McGue, C., Saraswathy, S., Pirzkall, A., Cha, S., et al. (2008) Relationship of pre-surgery metabolic and physiological MR imaging paramteters to survival for patients with untreated GBM. Journal of Neuro-Oncology, 91, 337–351.
  50. Saraswathy, S., Forrest W. Crawford, Lamborn, K.L., Pirzkall, A., Chang, S., Cha, S., et al. (2008) Evaluation of MR markers that predict survival in patients with newly diagnosed GBM prior to adjuvant therapy. Journal of Neuro-Oncology, 91, 69–81.
  51. Khayal, I.S., Forrest W. Crawford, Saraswathy, S., Lamborn, K.R., Chang, S.M., Cha, S., et al. (2008) Relationship between choline and apparent diffusion coefficient in patients with gliomas. Journal of Magnetic Resonance Imaging, 27, 718–725.
  52. Crane, J.C., Forrest W. Crawford and Nelson, S.J. (2006) Grid enabled magnetic resonance scanners for near real-time medical image processing. Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing, 66, 1524–1533.
  53. Cha, S., Tihan, T., Forrest W. Crawford, Fischbein, N.J., Chang, S., Bollen, A., et al. (2005) Differentiation of low-grade oligodendrogliomas from low-grade astrocytomas by using quantitative blood-volume measurements derived from dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced MR imaging. American Journal of Neuroradiology, 26, 266–273.
  54. Li, X., Vigneron, D.B., Cha, S., Graves, E.E., Forrest W. Crawford, Chang, S.M., et al. (2005) Relationship of MR-derived lactate, mobile lipids, and relative blood volume for gliomas in vivo. American Journal of Neuroradiology, 26, 760–769.