Forrest W. Crawford bio photo

Forrest W. Crawford

Associate Professor
Statistics & Data Science
Yale University

PO Box 208034 New Haven CT 06510

Network-based epidemiology for hidden and hard-to-reach populations

This is the project webpage for the NIH Director’s New Innovator Award 1DP2HD091799-01.

Project goals include:

  • New statistical methodology for network-based epidemiology
  • New estimators for data obtained from respondent-driven sampling
  • Methods for estimating the size of a hidden or hard-to-reach population
  • Web-based software for analysis of network link-tracing surveys
  1. Zulli, A., Pan, A., Bart, S., Forrest W. Crawford, Kaplan, E., Cartter, M., et al. (2021) Predicting daily COVID-19 case rates from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations across a diversity of wastewater catchments. FEMS Microbes, In press.
  2. Morozova, O., Li, Z. and Forrest W. Crawford (2021) One year of modeling COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut. Scientific Reports, 11, 20271.
  3. Cai, X., Loh, W.W. and Forrest W. Crawford (2021) Identification of causal intervention effects under contagion. Journal of Causal Inference, 9, 9–38. (Winner of best paper award, ASA Section on Statistics in Epidemiology)
  4. Khoshnood, K., Shebl, F.M., Khoury, D., Aara, E., Barbour, R., Forrest W. Crawford, et al. (2021) Reported History and Correlates of Drug Overdose among People Who Inject Drugs in Lebanon. Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 27, 571–579.
  5. Orr, L.V., Forrest W. Crawford, Khoshnood, K., Khouri, D., Fouad, F.M., Seal, D.W., et al. (2021) Sociodemographic Characteristics and HIV Risk Behaviors of Native-Born and Displaced Syrian Men and Transgender Women Who Have Sex with Men in Lebanon. Submitted.
  6. Tran, T.N.-A., Wikle, N.B., Yang, F., Inam, H., Leighow, S., Gentilesco, B., et al. (2021) SARS-CoV-2 attack rate and population immunity in southern New England, March 2020 - May 2021. Submitted.
  7. Erlendsdottir, M., Eshghi, S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2021) Modeling COVID-19 care capacity in a major health system. Submitted.
  8. Josephs, N., Feehan, D. and Forrest W. Crawford (2021) A sample size heuristic for network scale-up surveys. Submitted.
  9. Aroke, H., Buchanan, A., Katenka, N., Forrest W. Crawford, Lee, T., Halloran, M.E., et al. (2021) Evaluating the Mediating Role of Recall of Intervention Knowledge in the Relationship between a Peer-Driven Intervention and HIV Risk Behaviors among People Who Inject Drugs. Working Paper.
  10. Prunas, O., Warren, J.L., Forrest W. Crawford, Gazit, S., Patalon, T., Weinberger, D.M., et al. (2021) Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel. Submitted.
  11. Cai, X., Kenah, E. and Forrest W. Crawford (2021) Causal identification of infectious disease intervention effects in a clustered population. Submitted.
  12. Orr, L., Shebl, F., Heimer, R., Khoshnood, K., Barbour, R., Khouri, D., et al. (2021) Violence and discrimination against men who have sex with men in Lebanon: the role of international displacement and migration. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 36, 10267–10284.
  13. Plettinckx, E., Forrest W. Crawford, Antoine, J., Gremeaux, L. and Van Baelen, L. (2021) How many people injected drugs over the last 12 months in Belgium? Estimates based on a capture-recapture and multiplier method. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 219, 108436.
  14. Chang, J., Forrest W. Crawford and Kaplan, E.H. (2021) Repeat SARS-CoV-2 Testing Models for Residential College Populations. Health Care Management Science, 24, 305–318.
  15. Erlendsdottir, M. and Forrest W. Crawford (2021) Randomized controlled trials of biomarker targets. Submitted.
  16. Schultes, O., Clarke, V., Paltiel, A.D., Cartter, M., Sosa, L. and Forrest W. Crawford (2021) COVID-19 Testing and Case Rates and Social Contact Among Residential College Students in Connecticut During the 2020-2021 Academic Year. JAMA Network Open, 12, e2140602.
  17. Forrest W. Crawford, Jones, S., Cartter, M., Dean, S.G., Warren, J.L., Li, Z., et al. (2021) Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: evidence from one year of mobile device data. Science Advances, In press. Winner of the Innovative Tradecraft Competition at the US Geospatial Intelligence Foundation 2021 meeting.
  18. Li, S., Forrest W. Crawford and Gerstein, M. (2020) Using sigLasso to optimize cancer mutation signatures jointly with sampling likelihood. Nature Communications, 11, 1–12.
  19. Morozova, O. and Forrest W. Crawford (2020) Direct effects under interference. Working Paper.
  20. Battaglini, M., Forrest W. Crawford, Patacchini, E. and Peng, S. (2020) A Graphical Lasso Approach to Estimating Network Connections: The Case of U.S. Lawmakers. Submitted.
  21. Sun, J., Van Baelen, L., Plettinckx, E. and Forrest W. Crawford (2020) Partial identification and dependence-robust confidence intervals for capture-recapture surveys. Submitted.
  22. Weinberger, D.M., Chen, J., Cohen, T., Forrest W. Crawford, Mostashari, F., Olson, D., et al. (2020) Estimation of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020. JAMA Internal Medicine, 180, 1336–1344.
  23. Shirado, H., Forrest W. Crawford and Christakis, N.A. (2020) Collective communication and behaviour in response to uncertain ‘Danger’ in network experiments. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 476, 20190685. (Dr. Shirado received the 2020 Marvin B. Sussman Best Dissertation Award in part for this paper)
  24. Gonsalves, G.S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2020) How Mike Pence Made Indiana’s HIV Outbreak Worse. Politico.
  25. Cheng, S., Eck, D.J. and Forrest W. Crawford (2020) Estimating the size of a hidden finite set: Large-sample behavior of estimators. Statistics Surveys, 14, 1–31.
  26. Morozova, O., Forrest W. Crawford, Cohen, T., Paltiel, A.D. and Altice, F.L. (2020) Cost-effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: Dynamic modeling analysis. Addiction, 115, 437–450.
  27. Forrest W. Crawford, Marx, F.M., Zelner, J. and Cohen, T. (2020) Transmission modeling with regression adjustment for analyzing household-based studies of infectious disease: application to tuberculosis. Epidemiology, 31, 238–247. (Runner-up, 2020 Rothman Prize, Epidemiology)
  28. Peng, S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Partial identification and credible estimation for stochastic epidemics with missing data. Working Paper.
  29. Morozova, O., Booth, R.E., Dvoriak, S., Dumchev, K., Sazonova, Y., Salyuk, T., et al. (2019) Divergent estimates of HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in Ukraine. International Journal of Drug Policy, 73, 156–162.
  30. Forrest W. Crawford, Morozova, O., Buchanan, A.L. and Spiegelman, D. (2019) Interpretation of the individual effect under treatment spillover. American Journal of Epidemiology, 188, 1407–1409.
  31. Zeng, L., Li, J. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Empirical evidence of recruitment bias in a network study of people who inject drugs. American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 45, 460–469.
  32. Morozova, O., Eck, D.J. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Regression and stratification for contagious outcomes. Working Paper.
  33. Dean, N.E., Gsell, P., Brookmeyer, R., Forrest W. Crawford, Donnelly, C.A., Ellenberg, S., et al. (2019) Accumulating evidence from randomized clinical trials across outbreaks. New England Journal of Medicine, In Press.
  34. Eck, D.J., Morozova, O. and Forrest W. Crawford (2019) Randomization for the susceptibility effect of an infectious disease intervention. Submitted.
  35. Li, Z.R., Xie, E., Forrest W. Crawford, Warren, J.L., McConnell, K., Copple, J.T., et al. (2019) Suspected heroin-related overdoses incidents in Cincinnati, Ohio: A spatiotemporal analysis. PLoS Medicine, 16, e1002956.
  36. Shebl, F., Khoshnood, K., Khouri, D., Aaraj, E., Barbour, R., Forrest W. Crawford, et al. (2019) HCV Risk and Prevalence among People Who Inject Drugs in Lebanon. Submitted.
  37. Forrest W. Crawford, Ho, L.S. and Suchard, M.A. (2018) Computational methods for birth-death processes. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Computational Statistics, 10, e1423.
  38. Pachankis, J.E., Hatzenbuehler, M.L., Wang, K., Burton, C.L., Forrest W. Crawford, Phelan, J.C., et al. (2018) The Burden of Stigma on Health and Wellbeing: A Taxonomy of Concealment, Course, Disruptiveness, Aesthetics, Origin, and Peril across 93 Stigmas. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 44, 451–474.
  39. Gunabushanam, G., Millet, J.D., Stilp, E., Forrest W. Crawford, McNamara, R.L. and Scoutt, L.M. (2018) Computer-assisted detection of tardus parvus waveforms on Doppler ultrasound. Ultrasound, 26, 81–92.
  40. Forrest W. Crawford, Aronow, P.M., Zeng, L. and Li, J. (2018) Identification of homophily and preferential recruitment in respondent-driven sampling. American Journal of Epidemiology, 187, 153–160.
  41. Bazazi, A.R., Vijay, A., Forrest W. Crawford, Heimer, R., Kamarulzaman, A. and Altice, F.L. (2018) HIV testing and awareness of HIV status among people who inject drugs in Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. AIDS Care, 30, 59–64.
  42. Gonsalves, G.S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Dynamics of the HIV outbreak and response in Scott County, Indiana, 2011-2015: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV, 5, 569–577.
  43. Gonsalves, G.S. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Lessons learned from the Indiana HIV outbreak. HIV Specialist, 10.
  44. Aronow, P.M., Forrest W. Crawford and Zubizarreta, J.R. (2018) Confidence intervals for linear unbiased estimators under constrained dependence. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 12, 2238–2252.
  45. Wu, J., Forrest W. Crawford, Kim, D.A., Stafford, D. and Christakis, N.A. (2018) Exposure, hazard, and survival analysis of diffusion on social networks. Statistics in Medicine, 37, 2561–2585. (Winner of 2017 WNAR Outstanding Written Paper Award)
  46. Liu, Y. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Estimating dose-specific cell division and apoptosis rates from chemo-sensitivity experiments. Scientific Reports, 8, 1–8.
  47. Ho, L.S., Forrest W. Crawford and Suchard, M.A. (2018) Direct likelihood-based inference for discretely observed stochastic compartmental models of infectious disease. Annals of Applied Statistics, 12, 1993–2021.
  48. Morozova, O., Cohen, T. and Forrest W. Crawford (2018) Risk ratios for contagious outcomes. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 15, 20170696.
  49. Ho, L.S., Xu, J., Forrest W. Crawford, Minin, V.N. and Suchard, M.A. (2018) Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 76, 911–944.
  50. Gonsalves, G.S., Forrest W. Crawford, Cleary, P.D., Kaplan, E.H. and Paltiel, A.D. (2018) An Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services. Medical Decision Making, 38, 262–272.
  51. Forrest W. Crawford, Wu, J. and Heimer, R. (2018) Hidden population size estimation from respondent-driven sampling: a network approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 113, 755–766.
  52. Culbert, G.J., Forrest W. Crawford, Murni, A., Waluyo, A., Bazazi, A.R., Sahar, J., et al. (2017) Predictors of Mortality within Prison and after Release among Persons Living with HIV in Indonesia. Research and Reports in Tropical Medicine, 8, 25–35.
  53. Antillón, M., Warren, J.L., Forrest W. Crawford, Weinberger, D.M., Kürum̈ E, Pak, G.D., et al. (2017) The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: a meta-regression approach. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11, e0005376.
  54. Heimer, R., Barbour, R., Khoury, D., Forrest W. Crawford, Shebl, F., Aaraj, E., et al. (2017) HIV Risk, Prevalence, and Access to Care among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Lebanon. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses, 33, 1149–1154.
  55. Wu, J., Forrest W. Crawford, Raag, M., Heimer, R. and Uusküla, A. (2017) Using data from respondent-driven sampling to estimate the number of people who inject drugs, with application to the Kohtla-Järve region of Estonia. PLoS One, 12, e0185711.
  56. Chen, L., Forrest W. Crawford and Karbasi, A. (2017) Submodular Variational Inference for Network Reconstruction. Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI).
  57. Kunkel, A., Forrest W. Crawford, Shepherd, J. and Cohen, T. (2016) Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining TB/HIV co-epidemic. AIDS, 30, 2715–2723.
  58. Chen, L., Karbasi, A. and Forrest W. Crawford (2016) Estimating the size of a large network and its communities from a random sample. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 29.
  59. Forrest W. Crawford, Stutz, T.C. and Lange, K. (2016) Coupling bounds for approximating birth-death processes by truncation. Statistics and Probability Letters, 109, 30–38.
  60. Forrest W. Crawford (2016) Discussion of “Co-authorship and citation networks for statisticians” by Pengsheng Ji and Jiashun Jin. Annals of Applied Statistics, 10.
  61. Forrest W. Crawford (2016) The graphical structure of respondent-driven sampling. Sociological Methodology, 46, 187–211.